Further
reflections on Covid-19… One thing I’ve become increasingly aware of over
recent days/weeks is a strange sense that we’re having to ‘tread water’ until
the pandemic is either over or the vaccine becomes available… which effectively
means (at least for us, having taken ‘decisions’ on a number of matters) no
public transport; no cinema; no theatre; no bars; no restaurants; no cafés
(unless the weather is kind and we can sit outside); no concerts; no rugby;
trying to void all but the basic shopping; no church (for me); no gathering
with friends (indoors); and no hugging. While we’re still meeting up with
family (in small numbers and with social distancing), it’s not the quite same…
and not meeting up with Iris and Rosa (for example) for bi-weekly after-school meals
and the chance to chat and catch up effectively feels like we’re missing out on
seeing them grow up. Missing out on a year of their lives (they’re only
teenagers for a short time!) and, at the same time, us getting older (and time
running out!?) feels like a double-whammy.
Meanwhile,
it seems that all our local friends are going about their normal lives – going to
restaurants, cafés, cinemas etc – and, with their cars, they have increased
flexibility and scope for doing other things too. Meanwhile, I’m currently
feeling less and less confident about driving ‘longish’ distances…
With the
number of UK cases (and deaths) on a sharp increase, it feels as if a second
national lockdown might become inevitable…but when? An immediate 2-3 week ‘firebreak’?
A full national lockdown immediately
after Christmas/New Year?
Everything
continues to be uncertain… planning ahead feels almost impossible. Jobs and the
economy are struggling. Will schools remain open? Will ‘vulnerable oldies’ be
instructed to self-isolate? People are already raising concerns about mental
health issues…
There’s a
strong sense that many people will disregard some of the ‘rules’ (why should I
both sticking to the guidelines, when I have lots of friends who are ignoring
them?)… and, anyway, the ‘rules’ represent government advice rather than a
legally-binding ban. The police won’t be able to cope and the worse it gets,
the more difficult it becomes to enforce.
It’s going to be a very long, hard
Winter for an awful lot of people.
From the Independent 24 October:
Can I
travel from tiers 1 and 2 to tier 3?
The government is advising against people
travelling to a “Very High Alert”, or tier 3, area.
“You
should avoid travelling to any part of the country subject to very high local
Covid alert levels,” it says on the website, plus you should “avoid staying
overnight in a very high alert level area if you are resident elsewhere.”
It adds:
“You must not stay with anyone you do not live with from a very high alert
level area or visit their home.”
However,
this is advice rather than a legally binding ban.
Can I travel from tier 3 to tiers 1
and 2?
The
government is advising against nearly all travel for those in tier 3 areas.
“You
should try to avoid travelling outside the very high alert level area you are
in,” and “should avoid staying overnight in another part of the UK if you are
resident in a very high alert level area,” reads the advice.
But it
does NOT say anything about what you should do if you DO travel from Tier3 to
Tier1… should you go into quarantine/self-isolate for xx days? Well, no, it apparently says nothing at all - because you shouldn't have done it in the first place - but, hey, who cares about such minor details?!
I’m aware
that my thoughts and experiences relating to Covid are likely to change over
the coming months (in my head, I’m just trying to focus on ‘getting through to
March’ – on the basis that this represents a year of living in this ‘lockdown
world’). So, here are some very brief, random thoughts as we approach the long
dark winter days:
1. When M+I
first self-isolated (18 March), the number of recorded cases that day was 676
(43 deaths). 20 April saw the highest number of daily deaths: 1,172 (compared
with 23 October: 224). 21 October saw the highest number of new daily cases 26,678
(compared with 6 May: 6,111).
2. The
number of weekly deaths has been steadily rising since the beginning of
September (between 30-86% per week); the number of weekly deaths is currently
the highest since the end of the first week in June (1,066 23 October).
3. The
government were focussed on minimising the adverse effect on the economy. There’s
a general perception/criticism that the government has been giving out ‘mixed
messages’…“It’ll be over by Christmas” (17 July)(and if it wasn’t, it’ll all be
‘our’ fault); “Back to Business” (28 August); etc.
4. Local
lockdowns were introduced (eg. Leicester, Luton, Aberdeen at the end of July).
5. Despite
government assertions to the contrary, Test+Trace measures condemned as ‘shambolic’
by health experts (9 September).
6. By the
end of September, at least 45 UK universities had had confirmed cases of
COVID-19 (and more than 865 cases have been identified among students and
staff since universities reopened). The total number of people self-isolating
has risen above 3,540.
7. By the
end of September, more than 2,000 UK schools affected (with pupils/staff being
sent home to self-isolate.
8. 12
October: government introduced 3-tier system of dealing with Covid; Labour had
called for 2-3 week ‘firebreak’ as more effective option (transpired that government’s
health experts ‘Sage’ had advised ‘firebreak’ 3 weeks earlier).
9. 23
October: Wales introduces 17-day ‘lockdown’.
10. This from
the Guardian (27 October) seemed to sum up the thoughts of many: “Managing a
second wave of Covid-19 in winter was always going to be a tougher proposition
than imposing a blanket lockdown in March. There is mounting evidence of
fatigue, confusion and resentment over localised restrictions. Frustration has
been compounded by the sense that the government pays only lip service to the
notion that ‘we are all in this together’”.
The
number of coronavirus cases and deaths have sharply increased over the past
month - in fact, the current daily number of cases (some 20,000) is getting on
for THREE times higher than the HIGHEST daily figures from March-September
(just let that sink in).
I really don’t envy ANY government in
these challenging times but, thinking back to those early days back in March,
when a virtual ‘lockdown’ was imposed on the entire country, people generally
backed the restrictions and there was a strong sense of ‘unity in a time of
crisis’. Since then, of course, the government has come under an enormous
amount of criticism on a long list of matters: its slowness to react; the
ill-judged/illegal actions of Dominique Cummings on his trip (or trips?) to Durham;
the lack of appropriate equipment; the lack of an adequate regime for testing,
tracing and isolating; issuing contracts to ‘friendly’ companies without
competition; making up the rules on local lockdowns without consulting regional
leaders and health authorities; universities and colleges (students/halls of
residences/number of positive cases); all the mixed messages; and now ignoring
the advice of its scientific advisors etc etc.
You might recall that the prime minister
unveiled a plan in July to return England to “normality” by Christmas… and he
also indicated that it might “be possible to
move away from the social distancing measures” by November. Well, it doesn’t
seem to have quite worked out like that… and, of course, Mr Johnson will claim
that the reason it hasn’t is all down to US… nothing to do with him! Meanwhile,
consensus has disintegrated and there’s distinct sense of “they’re making
things up as they go along”… and opinion polls indicate that the public has
lost confidence in the government.
Clearly,
the coronavirus virus has cost the UK a HUGE amount of money over the past
seven months but, for the life of me, I still can’t understand how we haven’t
yet managed to come up with a reliable, speedy, efficient mass testing
programme (and why aren’t people being checked for the virus on a regular
basis?)?
PS:
And, meanwhile, Mr Johnson is telling us we’re going to end up with a no-deal
Brexit (and, of course, he’s blaming it all on the EU!).
Image:
Chris Riddell’s cartoon from last Sunday’s ‘Observer’.
